Marker Mutation Rates
This page is about the mutation rates of Y-STR markers used in genetic genealogy.
This page is about the mutation rates of Y-STR markers used in genetic genealogy.
Markers are not created equal -- especially as to their propensities to change. A one-step mutation on DYS426, for example, is one-tenth as likely as one on DYS437. And, both are considered slow markers by FTDNA.
It should be noted that the available data is only for average mutation rates; no authoritative data has been found for variances above and below those averages. However, informal observation suggests that the variances in rates are relatively wide, so caution is advised in application.
Why variances are important: Statisticians need two pieces of data to make good predictions. (1) An average or mean provides the most likely value, and (2) The variance (or standard deviation) is used to calculate the confidence which can be placed in the prediction. Without a variance, it is impossible to say how much confidence should be put on the prediction.
The charts below order STR markers in order of mutation rates, from lowest to highest.
The median rate of the markers for which we've found data (by no means all) is 0.0226 or about 1:442 transmission events.
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Markers for which rate data not found:
DXYS156, DYF371, DYF385S1, DYF395S1, DYF397, DYF399,
DYF401, DYF406S1, DYF408, DYF411, DYS413, DYS425, DYS434, DYS435,
DYS436, DYS441, DYS443, DYS444, DYS445, DYS446, DYS450, DYS452,
DYS453, DYS461, DYS462, DYS463, DYS481, DYS485, DYS487, DYS490,
DYS494, DYS495, DYS497, DYS504, DYS505, DYS508, DYS520, DYS522, DYS525, DYS531, DYS532, DYS533,
DYS534, DYS540, DYS549, DYS556, DYS557, DYS565, DYS572, DYS573,
DYS575, DYS578, DYS589, DYS590, DYS594, DYS612, DYS614, DYS626, DYS632, DYS635, DYS636, DYS638,
DYS641, DYS643, DYS710, DYS714, DYS716, DYS717, DYS725, DYS726, Y-GATA-A10, Y-GATA-C4,
and Y-GGAAT-1B07.
We have used the following sources to compile this information: